Progressive overload: choose your next weight yourself

Progressive overload is the gradual increase of the stress that training places on the body (Kraemer and Ratamess 2004). Muscles and the nervous system adapt to what you ask of them, and once a weight is easy it stops being a reason to change. You can raise the demand by adding weight, reps or sets, by taking sets closer to failure, or by changing rest or tempo.

For a lifter who plans their own training, the practical question is narrower: what goes on the bar today? The rest of this guide answers it from what you did last time.

The Prescription is 3 sets of 8–12 reps with 2 reps in reserve. Each row is one session; the last column is the choice made from last time.

Four sessions at 20 kg added nine reps across the three sets (27 to 36) before the weight went up. By the Epley formula our 1RM calculator uses, a set of 12 with 2 in reserve should fall to about 8 after a 10% jump, which is what session 5 shows. In a full workout every exercise follows the same rule at its own pace: the press may go up while the row is still collecting reps.

Add the smallest step your equipment allows. The smaller the muscle and the lighter the weight, the bigger that step is in percent.

The ACSM position stand (2009) gives a rule of thumb: when you can do one or two reps more than your target on two sessions in a row, add 2–10% to the load, less on exercises for small muscle groups and more on those for large ones. Double progression arrives at the same place: the top of the range is your signal.

The range decides how often you add weight. Any range builds muscle if the sets end close to failure; heavier ranges build more maximal strength.

Make the range wide enough for a weight step. A narrow range such as 8–10 has no room if the next dumbbell is 20% heavier: use 8–12 or 10–15.

Linear progression skips the range: you do a fixed number of reps, such as 5 sets of 5, and add the smallest step every session for as long as you complete them all. 60 kg for 5 × 5 today, 62.5 kg next time. It works for beginners because they adapt fast.

A common rule: it has run its course when you miss reps at a new weight two sessions in a row; how long that takes varies from lifter to lifter. Then add weight once a week instead, or move the lift to double progression with a range such as 3 × 5–8.

Weight is not the only thing you can add. These count too:

• More reps at the same weight. Plotkin et al. (2022) had trained lifters either add load or add reps for eight weeks: their leg muscles grew about the same, and adding load gave slightly more squat strength, a small and uncertain difference.
• More sets. In the meta-analysis by Schoenfeld et al. (2017), each extra weekly set per muscle was linked to slightly more growth, and 10 or more sets a week gave the largest gains; most participants were untrained, and the study could not show where more stops helping.
• Closer to failure: the same weight with fewer reps in reserve. Going all the way to failure adds little; a 2023 meta-analysis (Refalo et al.) found at most a trivial advantage for muscle growth. Use this lever for a while, then go back to reps or weight.
• Better reps: a fuller range of motion, a controlled lowering or a pause. They make the set harder without changing the numbers, so note them, or last time stops being a fair comparison.

Change one thing at a time. If you add a set and add weight in the same week and your reps fall, you will not know why.

A common coaching rule of thumb: you have stalled when the same weight gives the same or fewer reps for about three sessions in a row. Work down this list:

1. Check sleep, food and stress first. Progress needs recovery, and if you are eating less to lose weight, slower progress is expected.
2. Take smaller steps. 2.5 kg on an overhead press can be 5–7% of the load; with 0.5 kg plates or the next pin you keep moving.
3. Repeat the weight and aim to win one rep on any set, not on every set.
4. Reset: drop the weight about 10% and build back up over a few sessions. This is common coaching practice, not something studies have tested.
5. Change the rep range or the variation, for example from 3 × 5 to 3 × 8–10, or from back squat to front squat for a few weeks. ACSM (2009) and Kraemer and Ratamess (2004) note that changing program variables can limit plateaus.
6. If several lifts stall at once and you feel worn down, take a lighter week. Coaches in a 2023 Delphi consensus (Bell et al.) describe a deload as a planned period of reduced training stress to manage fatigue.

Expect progress to slow as you get stronger. Kraemer and Ratamess (2004) report strength gains of about 40% in untrained people, 20% in moderately trained, 16% in trained, 10% in advanced and 2% in elite lifters, across studies lasting from 4 weeks to 2 years. One more rep a month on a big lift is still progress.

Double progression only works if you know what you did last time on the same set: the weight and reps of every working set, not just the best one. Before each set, look at last time and decide: the same weight for one more rep, or the next step up.

Compare like with like: the same exercise, in the same place in the workout, with about the same rest. A set done after a different exercise or with half the rest is not a fair test.